August 13, 2018
USDA PROJECTS RECORD U.S. CORN YIELD IN AUGUST 10th REPORT
There was a lot of anticipation leading into August 10 USDA Crop Report, due to numerous weather-related crop situations that existed in many of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the United States. Most of the Eastern Corn Belt, as well as portions of the Western Corn Belt have benefitted from almost ideal crop conditions during much of the 2018 growing season. However, excessive rainfall and very saturated soils through much of June and early July in a large portion of southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa have resulted in lower 2018 yield expectations in some areas. In recent weeks, there has also been concerns with a growing drought area in Missouri and southern Iowa, as well as portions of Eastern Kansas and Nebraska. The most recent USDA Crop Report was based on crop conditions across the U.S. on August 1st.
The August 10 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2018 total U.S. corn production at nearly 14.6 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of less than 1 percent from the 2017 production level. The 2018 projected U.S. corn production compares to the record U.S. corn production of 15.2 billion bushels in 2016, 14.2 billion bushels in 2014, and 13.9 billion bushels in 2013. USDA is estimating 2018 total harvested corn acreage in the U.S. at 81.8 million acres, which is unchanged from July USDA estimates, but is down 1 percent from 82.7 million acres in 2017 and is well below the 86.7 million harvested corn acres in 2016.
The latest Crop Report projects a new record national average corn yield in 2018 at 178.4 bushels per acre. If achieved, this would be the third year in a row for a new record U.S. average corn yield, surpassing the 2017 record yield of 176.6 bushels per acre, and the previous record yield of 174.6 bushels per acre in 2016. Other recent U.S. average corn yields are 168.4 bushels per acre in 2015 and 171.0 bushels per acre in 2014. The USDA projected average corn yield for 2018 was about 2 bushels per acre higher than the average yield estimates by the private grain marketing analysts.
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2018 average corn yield at 191 bushels per acre, which is 3 bushels below the record State average corn yield of 194 bushels per acre in 2017. Other recent State average corn yields are 193 bushels per acre in 2016, 188 bushels per acre in 2015, and 158 bushels per acre in 2014. USDA is now projecting Iowa’s 2018 average corn yield at 202 bushels per acre, which would be the same as the final 2017 corn yield level and would be just below the record State average corn yield of 203 bushels per acre in 2016. Other recent average corn yields in Iowa are 192 bushels per acre in 2015 and 178 bushels per acre in 2014.
The 2018 USDA corn yield estimates for the other major corn producing States are Illinois at 207 bushels per acre, compared to 201 bushels per acre in 2017; Indiana at 186 bushels per acre, compared to 180 bushels per acre in 2017; and Nebraska at 196 bushels per acre, compared to 181 bushels per acre in 2017. South Dakota’s corn yield is estimated at 170 bushels per acre, compared to 145 bushels per acre in 2017, with North Dakota at 148 bushels per acre, compared to 139 bushels per acre in 2017.
The USDA Report on August 10 estimated total 2017 U.S. soybean production at a record level of nearly 4.59 billion bushels, which is an increase of 4 percent from a year ago. The projected 2018 production level surpasses the previous record U.S. soybean production of 4.39 billion bushels in 2017, as well as 4.3 billion bushels in 2016. USDA is now estimating total 2018 harvested soybean acreage at 88.9 million acres, which is slightly below the record level of 89.5 million acres in 2017.
USDA projected the 2018 U.S. average soybean yield at 51.6 bushels per acre, which surprised the grain trading experts, and exceeded even the highest private yield estimate. The 2018 estimated U.S. soybean yield compares to 49.1 bushels per acre in 2017; however, this still trails the record national average soybean yield of 52.1 bushels per acre in 2016. Other recent national soybean yields are 48.0 bushels per acre in 2015 and 47.5 bushels per acre in 2014. Minnesota’s 2018 average soybean yield is estimated at 49 bushels per acre, which compares to 47 bushels per acre in 2017 and the record State soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Iowa is projected to have a soybean yield of 59 bushels per acre in 2018, compared to 56.5 bushels per acre in 2017 and the State record of 60.5 bushels per acre in 2016.
Other projected 2018 yields in major soybean producing States include Illinois at 64 bushels per acre, compared to 58 bushels per acre in 2017; Indiana at 58 bushels per acre, compared to 54 bushels per acre in 2017; and Nebraska at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2017. South Dakota is projected to have a 2018 soybean yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2017, and the 2018 North Dakota soybean yield is estimated at 38 bushels per acre, compared to 34 bushels per acre in 2017. North and South Dakota combined are estimated to have 12.2 million acres of soybeans harvested in 2018, which compares to 7.7 million acres in Minnesota and 9.8 million acres in Iowa.
AUGUST 10 WASDE REPORT
The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) were also released on August 10. This report included the 2018 estimated U.S. corn production of 14.59 billion bushels and showed a slight increase in the 2018-19 corn ending stocks, compared to the July estimate. The Report showed a slight increase in expected corn usage for feed and exports in 2018-19, which resulted in projected corn ending stocks of 1.68 billion bushels. This would be a 17 percent reduction from the estimated 2017-18 corn ending stocks of 2.03 billion bushels and would be at the lowest level in several years.
USDA is projecting an average on-farm corn price for the 2018-19 marketing year, which runs from September 1, 2018, through August 31, 2019, in a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel, with an average expected price of $3.60 per bushel. The August estimated average corn price is down 20 cents from the July price estimates. The 2017-18 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2018, is now estimated at $3.40 per bushel, which compares to national average prices of $3.36 per bushel for 2016-17, $3.61 per bushel for 2015-16, and $3.70 per bushel for 2014-15.
The recent WASDE estimates are projecting a large U.S. soybean production of nearly 4.59 billion bushels in 2018, as well as some small increases in the expected soybean crush and export levels in the coming year. This would result in estimated 2018-19 soybean ending stocks at 785 million bushels, which would be at one of the highest levels ever. USDA is estimating 2017-18 soybean ending stocks at 430 million bushels, which compares to the 2016-17 ending stocks of 302 million bushels.
USDA is now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2018-19 marketing year in a range of $7.65 to $10.15 per bushel, with an average expected price of $8.90 per bushel. The August estimated 2017-18 soybean price was lowered by $.35 per bushel from the July estimate. The 2017-18 final national average soybean price is estimated at $9.35 per bushel, which compares to 12-month national average prices of $9.47 per bushel in 2016-17, $8.95 per bushel in 2015-16, and $10.10 per bushel in 2014-15.
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Note — For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Senior
Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone — (507) 381-7960);
E-mail — kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com)