January 16, 2017

JANUARY 12  USDA  REPORT  CONFIRMS  RECORD  2016  PRODUCTION

As expected, the USDA Crop Production Report released on January 12 indicates that both the total U.S. corn production and soybean production were at record levels. The USDA Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report, which was also released on January 12, showed a slight decrease in the carryover stocks of both corn and soybeans, compared to the December 15 WASDE estimates. However, the latest projected ending stocks for the 2016-17 marketing year are still considerably higher than the final 2015-16 corn and soybean ending stocks.  Following are some highlights from the latest USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports :

Corn WASDE Summary :

According to the January 12 USDA Report, the total U.S, corn production for 2016 is estimated to be a new record at just over 15.1 billion bushels. The 2016 level is an increase of 11 percent above the 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.6 billion bushels, and surpasses the previous record corn production of just over 14.2 billion bushels in 2014. The 94 million corn acres planted in 2016, compares to 88 million in 2015 and 90.6 million acres in 2014. The modern record for planted corn acres was 97.3 million acres in 2012, which was the highest in the U.S. since 1949. The total corn acres harvested for grain in 2016 was 86.7 million acres, compared to 80.8 million acres in 2015 and 83.1 million acres in 2014.

According to the January 12 WASDE Report, the corn ending stocks for 2016-17 are estimated at just over 2.35 billion bushels, which is well above the estimated ending stocks of slightly over 1.73 billion bushels in both 2015-16 and 2014-15. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use in 2016-2017 to be near 14.6 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is up considerably from near 13.7 billion bushels in both 2015-16 and 2014-15. The level of corn exports, as well as estimated usage for feed and ethanol production, are all expected to increase in 2016-17, compared to a year earlier.

USDA is projecting the 2016-17 market year average (MYA) corn price in a range of $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel, resulting in an average of $3.40 per bushel, which would be the lowest in several years. This compares to 12-month MYA corn prices of $3.61 per bushel for 2015-16, $3.70 per bushel for 2014-15, $4.46 per bushel for 2013-14, and $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13. The 12-month MYA price for the 2016 crop year will be calculated from September 1, 2016 through August 31, 2017.

Soybean WASDE Summary :

According to the January 12 USDA Report, total U.S. soybean production for 2016 is estimated at just over 4.3 billion bushels, which is up from just over 3.9 billion bushels in both 2015 and 2014. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2016 was at the record level of 82.7 million acres, surpassing the previous record of 82.6 million acres in 2014, and comparing to 81.8 million acres in 2015.

The USDA Report is projecting soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 at 420 million bushels, which is up significantly from the carryover levels of 197 million bushels in 2015-16 and 191 million bushels in 2014-15. Total soybean usage for 2016-17 is estimated at just over 4.1 billion bushels, which is up from near 3.9 billion bushels in both 2015-16 and 2014-15. This is due to projected increases in both the export and soybean crush levels. USDA is now estimating the 2016-17 average MYA soybean price in a range of $9.00-$10.00 per bushel, or an average price of $9.50 per bushel. This compares to 12-month MYA soybean prices of $8.95 per bushel for 2015-16 and $10.10 per bushel for 2014-15.

2016 Crop Yields :

The national average corn yield for 2016 is estimated to be a record at 174.6 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous record U.S. corn yield of 171 bushels per acre in 2014, as well as the U.S. corn yield of 168.4 bushels per acre in 2015. The 2016 U.S. corn yield compares to other recent average corn yields of 158.1 bushels per acre in 2013, 123.1 in the drought year of 2012, and 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011. The U.S. average soybean yield in 2016 is estimated at the record level of 52.1 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous record yields of 48 bushels per acre in 2015 and 47.5 bushels per acre in 2014. The 2016 U.S. soybean yield is well above other recent average soybean yields of 44 bushels per acre in 2013, 40 bushels per acre in 2012, and 41.9 bushels per acre in 2011.

The average corn yield for Minnesota in 2016 is estimated at the record level of 193 bushels per acre, besting the 2015 State record yield of 188 bushels per acre, and comparing to 156 bushels per acre in 2014 and 159 bushels per acre in 2013. The estimated 2016 Iowa corn yield of 203 bushels per acre is an all-time State record for any major corn producing State in the U.S., and is well above the previous State record corn yield of 192 bushels per acre in 2015 and the corn yield of 178 bushels per acre in 2014. The average 2016 corn yields in other major corn production States were Illinois at 197 bushels per acre, up from 175 bushels per acre in 2015, Indiana at 173 bushels per acre, compared to 150 bushels per acre in 2015, Nebraska at 178 bushels per acre, down from 185 bushels per acre in 2015, South Dakota at 161 bushels per acre, just above the 159 bushels per acre in 2015, and North Dakota at 158 bushels per acre, considerably higher than 128 bushels per acre in 2015.

The estimated average soybean yield in Minnesota for 2016 was at the record level of 52.5 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous State record yield of 50 bushels per acre in 2015, and comparing to soybean yields of 41.5 bushels per acre in 2014 and 42 bushels per acre in 2013. The average soybean yield for 2016 in Iowa is estimated at the impressive record level of 60.5 bushels per acre, which compares to previous record yield of 56.5 bushels per acre in 2015 and to 51 bushels per acre in 2014. The estimated average 2016 soybean yields in other major production States were Illinois at 59 bushels per acre, compared to 56 bushels per acre in 2015, Indiana at 57.5 bushels per acre, up from 50 bushels per acre in 2015, Nebraska at 61 bushels per acre, an increase from 58 bushels per acre in 2015, South Dakota at 49.5 bushels per acre, up from 46 bushels per acre in 2015, and North Dakota at 41.5 bushels per acre, a substantial increase over 32.5 bushels per acre in 2015.

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Note — For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and

Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN.  (Phone — (507) 381-7960);

E-mail — kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com)